The investor who bet against the US housing market in the run-up to the 2007 financial crisis has now placed a significant wager on the collapse of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

The investor who bet against the US housing market in the run-up to the 2007 financial crisis has now placed a significant wager on the collapse of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

  • vane@lemmy.worldEnglish
    0·
    16 days ago

    Nvidia
    $4752 B Market Cap
    $165 B Revenue
    $100 B Earnings
    $40 B Liabilities
    $140 B Assets

    4752/100 = 47 years to pay up market cap

    Palantir
    $445 B Market Cap
    $3.44 B Revenue
    $0.79 B Earnings
    $7.36 B Assets
    $1.34 B Liabilities

    445/0.79 = 569 years to pay up market cap

    He’s not wrong. It’s pumped more than in 1998

    • vane@lemmy.worldEnglish
      0·
      16 days ago

      More tech companies :

      Oracle
      $713.58 B Market Cap
      $59.01 B Revenue
      $18.07 B Earnings
      $180.44 B Assets
      $155.78 B Liabilities

      713.58/18.07 = 39.48 years

      Google
      $3433 B Market Cap
      $371.39 B Revenue
      $140.07 B Earnings
      $502.05 B Assets
      $139.13 B Liabilities

      3433/140.07 = 24,51 years

      Apple
      $3991 B Market Cap
      $408.62 B Revenue
      $130.21 B Earnings
      $331.49 B Assets
      $265.66 B Liabilities

      3991/130.21 = 30,65 years

      Microsoft
      $3769 B Market Cap
      $281.72 B Revenue
      $123.62 B Earnings
      $619.00 B Assets
      $275.52 B Liabilities

      3769/123.62 = 30,48 years

      Amazon $2674 B Market Cap
      $670.03 B Revenue
      $85.15 B Earnings
      $682.17 B Assets
      $348.39 B Liabilities

      2674/85.15 = 31,40 years

      Meta
      $1602 B Market Cap
      $178.80 B Revenue
      $81.23 B Earnings
      $294.74 B Assets
      $99.67 B Liabilities

      1602/81.23 = 19,72 years

      • vane@lemmy.worldEnglish
        0·
        16 days ago

        Bank

        JPMorgan
        $848.45 B Market Cap
        $175.65 B Revenue
        $71.04 B Earnings
        $4552 B Assets
        $4195 B Liabilities

        848.45/175.65 = 4,83 years

        • ChogChog@lemmy.worldEnglish
          0·
          16 days ago

          You divided by revenue, not earnings like the others.

          For consistency:
          848.45/71.04 = 11.943 years

          Edit: same with your Microsoft calculation

  • MalReynolds@piefed.socialEnglish
    0·
    16 days ago

    While I want both to be true, he’s betting against governments wanting actionable intelligence on each and every citizen (although the moat there is shallow, easy for someone else to start a race to the bottom) and massively parallel processors becoming less valuable (remember how smoothly they switched from crypto to AI?, remember when you could buy a gaming video card for less than the rest of your computer, likely another bubble in the wings) plus the whole circular investment is propping up the entire US economy situation, the epitome of too big to fail (without the whole US economy going tits up, which given the current situations is distinctly possible). Actually 8:2 sounds ballpark, but I doubt he’s not hedging his bets.

    • cassandrafatigue@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
      0·
      16 days ago

      being against governments wanting

      A thing they already had and this doesn’t help with

      but the infra!

      That burns out in like two years

      but the ponzi scheme can’t collapse!

      …

      • MalReynolds@piefed.socialEnglish
        1·
        9 days ago

        A thing they already had and this doesn’t help with

        Sorry to necro, but I guess that should have been

        governments wanting plausibly deniable, legal implication free, actionable intelligence

        as to the others, valid enough, though I doubt they’ll be burning out chips (if you cool them properly and server farms do, they become outdated far before they die, even @ <4nm…). Ponzi, yup, sure is, in spades, but that’s the finance game now.