Above-average temperatures are forecast across much of the country during the holiday, but the core of the warmth — where departures from normal will be the largest — is anticipated to extend from the Front Range of the Rockies into the Central Plains and Upper Midwest.

Over Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, daily high temperatures in these regions are forecast to range between 20°F and 35°F above the 1991-2020 climate normals. Much of the western and eastern U.S. is also expected to experience unusual warmth, 5°F to 15°F above average.

Holiday high temperatures are anticipated to reach the 60s to 80s from the Plains to the Gulf Coast. For many, this warmth will challenge or break daily high temperature records. On Christmas morning, low temperatures are expected to range from 40°F to the mid-60s, or up to 25°F above average for late December.

Climate Shift Index (CSI) levels of 3 are forecast across the Central and Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and the Southwest, meaning human-caused climate change made this warmth at least 3 times more likely. CSI levels of 5 — the highest possible — are forecast in portions of Missouri and throughout the Southwest and Mexico, signaling an exceptional climate-influenced event.